Fixture ticker

True difficulty from the betting market and the match model, not FPL's static FDR — attack and defence side by side.

structured-0.1

easy12345hard

Aattack — chance to scoreDdefence — chance of a clean sheet

left half attack · right half defence — ranked by combined difficultynear gameweeks are priced from the betting market where a line exists, later ones from the match model — each cell says which

window

show

Team	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14
ARSArsenal	HUL(H)A1D1	NEW(A)A1D2	MCI(H)A3D2	BRE(A)A2D1	TOT(A)A2D1
MCIMan City	NFO(A)A1D2	FUL(H)A1D2	ARS(A)A5D4	LEE(H)A1D1	BRE(A)A2D3
LIVLiverpool	CRY(A)A1D2	MUN(H)A2D3	EVE(A)A3D3	SUN(H)A2D2	CHE(A)A2D4
AVLAston Villa	MUN(A)A3D5	SUN(H)A2D2	IPS(A)A1D2	EVE(H)A3D2	CRY(H)A2D2
BOUBournemouth	IPS(A)A2D3	NFO(H)A2D3	FUL(A)A4D3	BHA(H)A3D3	HUL(H)A1D1
MUNMan Utd	AVL(H)A2D4	LIV(A)A4D5	BRE(H)A2D3	NEW(A)A2D4	COV(H)A1D1
BHABrighton	BRE(H)A2D3	HUL(A)A1D2	NEW(H)A3D3	BOU(A)A4D4	NFO(A)A4D4
CHEChelsea	SUN(A)A2D3	LEE(H)A2D3	NFO(A)A4D4	CRY(H)A2D2	LIV(H)A3D5
LEELeeds	TOT(H)A4D3	CHE(A)A5D5	COV(H)A1D1	MCI(A)A5D5	IPS(H)A1D1
EVEEverton	COV(H)A2D2	BRE(A)A4D5	LIV(H)A4D4	AVL(A)A5D4	FUL(H)A4D2
TOTSpurs	LEE(A)A4D3	IPS(H)A1D2	SUN(A)A5D4	FUL(H)A4D3	ARS(H)A5D5
NFONott'm Forest	MCI(H)A5D5	BOU(A)A5D5	CHE(H)A3D3	HUL(A)A2D2	BHA(H)A3D3
FULFulham	NEW(H)A2D3	MCI(A)A5D5	BOU(H)A4D3	TOT(A)A4D3	EVE(A)A5D3
NEWNewcastle	FUL(A)A4D5	ARS(H)A5D5	BHA(A)A4D4	MUN(H)A3D5	SUN(H)A3D2
CRYCrystal Palace	LIV(H)A5D5	COV(A)A3D4	HUL(H)A2D2	CHE(A)A5D5	AVL(A)A5D5
COVCoventry City	EVE(A)A5D5	CRY(H)A3D4	LEE(A)A5D5	IPS(H)A2D3	MUN(A)A5D5
BREBrentford	BHA(A)A4D5	EVE(H)A2D3	MUN(A)A4D5	ARS(H)A5D5	MCI(H)A5D5
SUNSunderland	CHE(H)A5D5	AVL(A)A5D5	TOT(H)A3D2	LIV(A)A5D5	NEW(A)A5D4
IPSIpswich Town	BOU(H)A4D5	TOT(A)A5D5	AVL(H)A5D5	COV(A)A5D5	LEE(A)A5D5
HULHull City	ARS(A)A5D5	BHA(H)A5D5	CRY(A)A5D5	NFO(H)A5D5	BOU(A)A5D5

Showing GW10–14 of the model's 8-gameweek window. Difficulty is the model's expected goals, banded 1–5.

Difficulty is banded from the expected goals for each side, so it moves with form and opponent — it is not FPL's fixed preseason rating. Where a fixture has a de-vigged betting line the market’s expected goals are used in place of the model’s; the legend says whether any in this window do, and each cell says which it used.